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Trump 2.0? Why World Leaders Are Polishing Their Diplomatic Skills
Trump 2.0? Why World Leaders Are Polishing Their Diplomatic Skills, In recent days, foreign leaders have hurried to curry favor with Donald J. Trump, fearfully recalling the arguments, taunts, and squabbles of his first year in office.
President Donald J. Trump in 2017 with leaders from the Group of 7 nations, including President Emmanuel Macron of France, Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and others in Sicily.Credit…Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
When Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Donald J. Trump at Trump Tower for dinner on Sept. 26, it was part of a British charm offensive to nurture a relationship between a left-wing leader and a right-wing potential president. So when Mr. Trump turned to Mr. Starmer before parting and told him, “We are friends,” according to a person involved in the evening, it did not go unnoticed.
Whether they stay friends is anybody’s guess.
For months leading up to Mr. Trump’s political comeback — and in the heady days since his victory was confirmed — foreign leaders have rushed, once again, to ingratiate themselves with him. Their emissaries have cultivated people in Mr. Trump’s orbit or with think tanks expected to be influential in setting policies for a second Trump administration.
Some leaders, like President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, are drafting their pitches to appeal to Mr. Trump’s transactional nature; others, like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, have deployed teams of officials to the United States to visit dozens of Republican leaders in the hope that they can moderate Mr. Trump’s most radical instincts on imposing tariffs.
Many of these bridge-building initiatives are likely to fail, according to history. By the conclusion of his first term, Mr. Trump had grown resentful of a number of leaders he had first gotten along well with. His erratic nature, protectionist trade stance, and dislike of alliances exacerbated conflicts that overshadowed the connection the leaders had worked so hard to build.
Trump 2.0? Why World Leaders Are Polishing Their Diplomatic Skills
In an interview, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull stated, “There were two misapprehensions about Trump.” The first was that he wouldn’t be the same person he was during the campaign. The second was that suckling him was the best course of action.
During a particularly heated phone discussion in January 2017, Mr. Turnbull asked Mr. Trump if the United States would keep an Obama-era agreement to take 1,250 refugees, to which Mr. Trump objected (the United States did take them). According to Mr. Turnbull, he eventually discovered more points of agreement with Mr. Trump, even persuading him not to impose duties on a few Australian exports.
The difference this time, Mr. Turnbull said, is that “everybody knows exactly what they’re going to get. He’s highly transactional. You’ve got to be able to demonstrate that a particular course of action is in his interest.”
Long before the election, leaders were chasing Trump in the hopes that he would win. Mr. Zelensky met Mr. Starmer in New York during the same week. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, in July.
Mr. Orban, a populist whose authoritarian style serves as a template for members of Mr. Trump’s MAGA movement, is arguably the person closest to cracking Mr. Trump’s code. The two frequently get together and speak on the phone, praising one another profusely in what has become a mutual admiration society.
According to Mr. Trump, Mr. Orban is a “very great leader, a very strong man,” and the reason why some people dislike him is “because he’s too strong.” For his part, Mr. Orban has hailed Mr. Trump as the sole possibility for bringing about peace in Ukraine and defeating “woke globalists.”
How to Persuade Trump
The core of Mr. Zelensky’s lobbying effort is persuading Mr. Trump that Ukraine’s aims are in his best interests. It is generally known that Mr. Trump is skeptical of military assistance for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. He has stated that he could put an end to the conflict in a day, possibly even before he takes office, although he has not provided details. In order to solidify Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine, analysts worry he would pressure Mr. Zelensky into reaching a peace agreement with President Vladimir V. Putin.
Mr. Zelensky argued at their discussion in New York that the United States has economic interests in protecting Ukraine. This is due to the fact that a large portion of US military aid goes to the nation’s defense firms, such as Lockheed Martin, which produces the HIMARS rocket system, which has grown to be an essential weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal.
In Washington, Ukrainian authorities have collaborated with Republican friends to create new frameworks for military assistance, such as a $500 billion lend-lease program to support Ukraine’s self-defense. Mike Pompeo, a former secretary of state and C.I.A. director in the first Trump administration, is the man behind it and could play a significant role in the current one.
“In my opinion, we should take a proactive position,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “It’s especially important and timely while Trump is beginning to form his administration and foreign policy team, and while the new Congress is beginning to form.”
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Mr. Merezhko says he has read several books on Trump’s first term to help him understand how to navigate a Trump restoration. He also held two meetings — one in Washington and one in Lithuania — with the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy institute whose ranks are filled with people who served in the Trump administration or on his campaign or transition teams.
Both Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump have baggage: The first impeachment process against Mr. Trump began in 2019 when he called the Ukrainian leader, in which the American leader asked him to look into Joseph R. Biden Jr.
But on Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky secured a prominent position close to the top of Mr. Trump’s list of supporters, and he lavished the president-elect with accolades for what he described as a “historic and landslide victory.” Mr. Zelensky described the interaction as “very warm.” He made no mention of the fact that Mr. Trump had called them on the phone with Silicon Valley entrepreneur Elon Musk, who supported his campaign.
Putting Out a Broad Net
Canada has also made a broad effort to sway the next government. In order to highlight the importance of the extensive U.S.-Canada trade relationship, Mr. Trudeau began sending cabinet ministers on frequent trips to the United States in January of last year.
According to Mr. Trump, all imported items should be subject to a tariff of at least 10%. For Canada, that would be disastrous. It would also be detrimental to the United States, Mr. Trudeau’s envoys were trying to convey to everyone who would listen. They targeted Republican leaders and spread out to 23 states.
Even Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Trump have had a tumultuous relationship. The two were formerly friendly, but their differences over tariffs caused Mr. Trump to leave a Group of 7 conference in Canada in 2018 and accuse Mr. Trudeau of being “dishonest and weak.” However, since they collaborated to negotiate a trade deal to replace NAFTA, Canada’s deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, has remained friendly with Robert Lighthizer, Mr. Trump’s top trade adviser.
Ms. Freeland said that she and Mr. Lighthizer had recently talked about how middle-class workers were harmed by the influx of Chinese imports that destroyed American manufacturing. She told reporters, “I am very strongly in agreement with Ambassador Lighthizer on that issue.”
Insiders and Outsiders
Some nations find it easier to engage a new Trump administration than others. According to two Israeli officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive meetings, Israeli officials have been briefing Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who worked on Middle East issues during his first term, and David Friedman, who was Mr. Trump’s ambassador to Israel, about the war in Gaza for several months.
According to Mr. Dagan’s spokesperson, Esther Allush, Yossi Dagan, an Israeli settler leader who ran for office, has already received an invitation to Mr. Trump’s inauguration in Washington. Last month, Mr. Friedman attended an event given by Mr. Dagan to promote his book, “One Jewish State.”
Both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trudeau have experienced highs and lows with Mr. Trump. Mr. Netanyahu won a significant win when Mr. Trump relocated the American Embassy to Jerusalem and acknowledged it as Israel’s capital during his first term. However, he was incensed when Mr. Netanyahu congratulated Mr. Biden on winning the 2020 presidential race.
On Wednesday, Mr. Netanyahu was one of the first leaders to phone Mr. Trump for what the Israeli government called a “warm and cordial” chat following his tense visit to Mar-a-Lago.
Compared to the language employed by previous presidents, that was moderate. William Ruto, the president of Kenya and the only African leader Mr. Biden has invited on a state visit, praised Mr. Trump’s victory as a testament to his “visionary, bold, and innovative leadership.”
Trump 2.0? Why World Leaders Are Polishing Their Diplomatic Skills
One of the countries most keen to gain Mr. Trump’s favor is Taiwan, whose independence is threatened by an increasingly assertive China. Following Washington’s 1979 decision to transfer diplomatic recognition to Beijing, the United States has traditionally discouraged high-level political interactions with Taiwan; but, in 2016, Mr. Trump accepted a call from Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan at the time.
That foreshadowed Mr. Trump’s increased support for Taiwan. Since then, however, his attitude toward the island has changed, and there are currently no indications that he and Lai Ching-te, the president of Taiwan, will speak. Mr. Trump received congratulations from Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr. Lai.
Fear of Mr. Trump’s return has also prompted proactive brainstorming in the EU. The top adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Björn Seibert, has met with ambassadors in small groups in recent weeks to consider scenarios for the incoming administration. According to a number of European officials, they have focused on trade and Mr. Trump.
When it comes to their duty, European diplomats are practical. However, they continue to believe that Mr. Trump may be persuaded with the right strategy.
“With President Trump, it’s the art of the possible,” stated Karen Pierce, the British ambassador to the US. You can make progress if you can clarify what we can accomplish together and how we can significantly improve things.
“It is imperative that you do it; failing to do so is a mistake,” Mr. Darroch stated. “However, I doubt that we will change his stance on matters on which he has publicly committed, such as tariffs or cutting off U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine.”
